KEEL
tour · step 2 of 3

The adversary.

The Hunter is a real attacker model. It never sees either bot's policy: it only watches public data, at each price level noting the health factor and whether the bot acted, exactly what a stop-hunter on mainnet would see. From that alone it estimates each bot's trigger, then attacks.

inference source
Aggregated across 69 engine markets (real controller, ContractMirror).
STARTERfixed threshold · no secret
PINNED
M1 · posterior on trigger · 69 markets aggregated
HF 1.0801.080 ($1938–$1938)90% HPD 0 bp
next-trigger band
0 bp
M2 · b width
0 bp
hunt price
$1938

trigger located to 0 bp — a fixed threshold collapses toward a point. Watch it act a few times and the number is yours.

KEELsealed base + per-round jitter
SECRET HELD
M1 · posterior on trigger · 69 markets aggregated
HF 1.1051.105 ($1983–$1983)90% HPD 0 bp
next-trigger band
380 bp
M2 · b width
80 bp
hunt price
$1952

next trigger is predictable to 380 bp at best — even with the base narrowed to 80 bp (M2), the next draw is fresh and uniform over the 300 bp jitter. M1's 0 bp collapse is a misspecified fixed-threshold model, not knowledge.

the attack · live controller

tapping price to $1952 · milking the reserve

forced spends
8 / 8 taps
capital drained
$3,850
debt-time burned
$1,095
deepest push
$1150
defender vETH reserve · the milk line
0.01.53.0
tappriceHFforced?spendreserve after
01$18931.055forced0.74 vETH2.26
02$16491.055forced0.69 vETH1.57
03$14721.055forced0.89 vETH0.68
04$12931.055forced212.00 vUSD0.68
05$12541.055forced203.93 vUSD0.68
06$12161.055forced211.22 vUSD0.68
07$11771.055forced145.86 vUSD0.68
08$11501.055forced322.19 vUSD0.68

The fixed-threshold bot falls at a shallow, discovered trigger — cheap to milk. To force Keel the attacker must crash price to $1150 (its M2 floor), and Keel's decisive restore de-levers: it burns debt-time score instead of silently bleeding a reserve, and each de-lever makes the next push cost more. ×1000: $3,850 capital + $1,095 debt-time to move it.

across 69 markets the starter's next trigger is predictable to 0 bp — Keel's to 380 bp at best, floored by the 300 bp fresh jitter it can never see under